Mortgage rates matter. They drive the monthly payment, and even a small change in the rate moves it. But this week Leah Brown looked at what history says about using the rate alone to decide when to buy.
The last buyer who waited for rates to drop waited 21 years
In 1972, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.38%. A buyer who decided to wait until the annual average fell back below that level would have waited until 1993. Twenty one years. And during those two decades, home prices did not wait. They kept rising.
Where today's rates actually sit
Today's rates feel high because we are comparing them with the exceptionally low rates of 2020 and 2021. Put on a longer timeline, the picture changes:
1981 peak: 16.64%
2021 low: 2.96%
1971 to 2025 average: 7.70%
2026 average so far: 6.39%
This year is running below the long-term average, not above it.
What this means
The point is not to buy regardless of the rate. It is that waiting for a lower rate carries a cost of its own. Purchase price, monthly payment, time horizon and your personal circumstances all belong in the decision.
Predicting future mortgage rates with certainty is impossible. Determining which homes fit inside your budget is something you can evaluate today, with real and known numbers.
Thinking of buying or selling in Granite Bay or the surrounding communities? Leah Brown can be reached at (916) 622-6316.
